Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Extraordinary Events

"Extraordinary events do not always require extraordinary causes. Given enough time, they can happen by chance. Knowing this, [Leonard] Mlodinow says, “we can improve our skill at decision making and tame some of the biases that lead us to make poor judgments and poor choices ... and we can learn to judge decisions by the spectrum of potential outcomes they might have produced rather than by the particular result that actually occurred.” Embrace the random. Find the pattern. Know the difference."

From "A Random Walk Through Middle Land," by Michael Shermer, Scientific American, October 2008.

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